Why Strengthen the Grid Now?
There are three major reasons — and hundreds of smaller ones — for making the grid stronger.
- Weather-related events. Populations have grown in areas where weather-related events — be they hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or fire — will impact them. People have moved into forested areas, where large trees overhang power lines and homes. Others have moved to the edge of rivers and oceans, causing a 40% increase in population in coastal areas from 1970 to 2010, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. In other areas, general population growth has put far more people and assets in the path of extreme weather.
In many cases the value of homes and real estate has skyrocketed. What may have been a summer cottage with cast-off furniture in the 1970s could be a year-round home today, with a price near the upper end of the local market. This puts a much higher percentage of a family’s wealth at risk in an extreme weather event. - Distributed generation. By far the fastest-growing demands of the grid in the last decade have come from distributed generation, primarily in photovoltaic (solar) generation. Solar has quickly grown from an uncommon and insignificant form of generation in the 1990s to producing enough power to cause reverse flow to substations in some distribution circuits in Hawaii and California.
While the trend toward solar has moved more slowly in other areas, it is growing. At DistribuTECH 2020, a survey of utilities from every part of the U.S. and Canada showed that solar projects doubled in 2018 and doubled again in 2019. For some utilities, the trend is just beginning and an occasional request for interconnection is seen. For others, the trend is impacting overall distribution design and construction.
The average home solar installation is becoming larger, too. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the average home installation in 2011 was just 5 kilowatts (kW). By 2018, it was 10 kW, doubling in seven years. The costs of system components have fallen enough that today a 10-kW system costs less than the 5-kW system did in 2011, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. Even in Louisiana — where residential energy rates are under $0.09 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) — solar is taking hold, and the number of applications is increasing at a similar rate to that seen by other utilities with higher rates.
In Michigan, for example, it takes 6.64 kW of solar generation to meet a 1 kW per-hour flat load. The customer will export just under 70% of total production over the course of a year, and then reimport it, sometimes months after the power was produced. Because of this bidirectional power flow, the typical net-zero customer in Michigan uses 20% more distribution over the course of a year than a non-solar customer. From a pure grid capacity point of view, these customers use over three times more capacity than a non-solar customer uses. - Electrification. Electrification is coming, but how fast is still uncertain. Electric vehicles are already being considered in many scenarios, and substitution of electricity for fossil fuels now used for heating, hot water, cooking and other purposes will happen eventually.
Transportation alone represents a third of energy usage in the U.S.; simply electrifying all means of transportation will double the total electricity required. Add to this the generation required for the electrification of the rest of the economy and electric energy use could easily increase by 2.5 times.
Thoughtful application of energy efficiency measures could lighten that load. By 2022, if the major U.S. automakers keep to their schedules, electric vehicles in every segment should be available from almost every automotive dealer in North America. Again, the speed of this transition is unknown and will vary both by state and on changing federal regulations and incentives.
Some will argue that the issues with such initiatives are easy to solve by simply adding energy storage with solar at every building, thus limiting the need for the electric grid. If the only juxtaposition between generation and demand were the day/ night cycle, these critics would be correct. However, there is also a seasonal cycle that requires that the grid continue to exist and to be strengthened.
As an example, a typical residential consumer in Ottawa, Ontario, could install 4 kW of solar generation and supporting batteries and do day/night shifting without a problem in June. But in December that consumer would need 40 kW of solar generation capacity to cover its 24-hour power needs. If that consumer adds an electric vehicle and an average commute to the current home power consumption, the individual’s need for solar generation in December jumps to almost 100 kW.
The farther south the location of the residence, the lower the seasonal mismatch between solar production and hourly demand becomes. However, some seasonal mismatch is inescapable in locations where seasonal changes are evident.
